Tunisia, the cradle of the uprisings which shook the Arab world in 2011, has a new President. Yet, Kais Saïed, elected on Sunday night with a landslide majority of 72.5% of the vote has no party, an ambiguous political program, and little faith in the country’s existing political system.
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He inherits a nation struggling to match democratic progress with robust economic performance, and one in which citizens have grown increasingly tired of politics as usual. Rejecting the country’s post-2011 political class, Tunisians have plumped for a candidate who made his name not in business or the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, Tunisia’s national legislative body, but as a classical Arabic speaking constitutional law professor.
Rejecting the country’s post-2011 political class, Tunisians have plumped for a candidate who made his name not in business
His supporters argue that Mr Saïed will usher in a second revolution in the country and are enlivened by his statement that ‘power must belong to the people directly’. His detractors argue that his is a dangerous project which will isolate Tunisia internationally, do little to counter its long-standing economic malaise and bring further dysfunction. Yet few would argue with Mr Saïed’s words on Sunday night: ‘today we enter a new stage in the history of Tunisia’.
Commentators have spent much of this week examining Mr Saïed’s ability to govern given the constraints provided by his lack of party support and ideological indeterminacy. Given his outsider status, much ink has been spilled on the bases of his electoral support. According to Sigma Conseil, a Tunisian polling agency, two statistics stand out in this regard. In the first instance, 90% of voters between the ages of 18-25 supported Mr Saïed.
According to Sigma Conseil, a Tunisian polling agency, two statistics stand out in this regard. In the first instance, 90% of voters between the ages of 18-25 supported Mr Saïed.
Equally striking is the fact that 32% of Mr Saïed’s supporters claimed to have abstained from voting in parliamentary elections held last weekend. Yet little attention has been paid to the forms of authority Mr Saïed is likely to wield. Mr Saïed’s agenda will be constrained by Tunisia’s constitutional arrangements, which he helped draft as a legal expert in 2014.
This means that grand promises to weed out corruption, return power to the people through a localised council system of democracy, and put Tunisia’s economy back on track will require delicate negotiations with the largest parties in the national assembly - the moderate Islamist Ennahda party and Qalb Tounes, a party led by Mr Saïed’s opponent in the presidential race, Nabil Karoui.
However, Tunisia’s constitution provides for presidential executive powers in the fields of foreign affairs and national defence. It is in these areas that Mr Saïed’s presence is most likely to be felt. Understanding Tunisia’s foreign policy agenda is particularly important at this time.
In June, Tunisia was elected to serve as a non-permanent member of the United Nations’ Security Council, giving Tunisian officials a larger than usual say in global forums. Secondly, as the ‘Arab Spring’s’ greatest success story, the international community will continue to watch Tunisia’s progress closely.
In June, Tunisia was elected to serve as a non-permanent member of the United Nations’ Security Council, giving Tunisian officials a larger than usual say in global forums. Secondly, as the ‘Arab Spring’s’ greatest success story, the international community will continue to watch Tunisia’s progress closely.
Its stability has a direct bearing on the Mediterranean migration crisis and European Union investments remain sizeable in the country. Finally, Middle Eastern actors such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey continue to look to Tunisia as a potential location to export their own ideological visions of regional order. Mr Saïed’s election will be watched closely in Riyadh, Dubai, Ankara and Doha, generating shares of optimism and alarm.
Mr Saïed has not stated a clear foreign policy position, but a number of important indicators exist on how he is likely to position Tunisia in relation to regional and international affairs. The first is the fact that Mr Saïd’s closest personal confidante, Ridha Mekki, often referred to as ‘Lenin’, has long voiced disquiet about an ongoing ‘colonial’ relationship that has existed between the Arab world and the West.
Mr Saïed’s election will be watched closely in Riyadh, Dubai, Ankara and Doha, generating shares of optimism and alarm
He has been outspoken on the Palestine issue, against the involvement of the United States in Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa’s pro-Western autocracies. Mr Saïed’s own past statements also augur a decisive shift in foreign policy. Once a legal expert for the Arab League, he has pledged to strengthen ties with Tunisia’s Arab and African neighbours and has in the past been deeply critical of European and American influence in Tunisia and the Arab world.
Rally for President Beji Caid Essebsi in Tunis, Tunisia on 6 April 2019 /AFP
Positioning himself in opposition to the post-2011 political elite and the previous regimes of Bourguiba and Ben Ali, Mr Saïed decries the intentions and ongoing influence of ex-colonial powers in the region. In early September, Mr Saïed issued a stern warning to the European Union to ‘take its hands off the country’s riches’.
Throughout his campaign, Mr Saïed has made solidarity with Palestine a key theme. In a live Presidential debate on Saturday night, when asked about his position on normalising relations with Israel, Mr Saïed argued ‘Normalisation is wrong. It should rather be called “great treason”.
Whoever deals with an entity that has displaced an entire people for over a century should be dealt with as a traitor and be placed on trial for treason.’ Though few Arab leaders would vocally come out in support of closer relations with Israel, Mr Saïed’s rhetoric certainly makes him an outlier. Closer to home, Mr Saïed has also criticised ongoing regional power meddling in Algeria and Libya.
In early September, Mr Saïed issued a stern warning to the European Union to ‘take its hands off the country’s riches’. Throughout his campaign, Mr Saïed has made solidarity with Palestine a key theme.
He has alluded negatively to countries that use the argument of ‘historical right’ to meddle in Libyan affairs, a not too subtle jab at the role of the Gulf States and Turkey in fomenting regional conflict. Like many of his followers, Mr Saïed believes that domestic political crises ought to be solved by the people, not more powerful regional backers. Relatedly, and in line with his positioning as a supporter of the revolutionary power of the people, Mr Saïed has proved critical of the backing given by Gulf powers to regional autocrats.
Egypt’s military leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has provoked considerable ire from Mr Saïed, who sees in Egypt a revolution betrayed. Indeed, among the chants heard among Mr Saïed’s supporters on the Avenue Habib Bourguiba on Sunday night, one of the loudest proved to be ‘Sisi is God’s Enemy’. Pledges to further the gains of the revolutions of 2011 and cede more power to everyday citizens will certainly leave officials in the Gulf fearful of the instigation of another wave of anti-systemic protest in the region.
How Mr Saïed aims to convert his charged rhetoric into action remains to be seen. Yet it is certain that the effects of his election will, like the events of 2011, reverberate far beyond Tunisia.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Al Bawaba News.
