The thickening fog of tactics and propaganda in Trump’s foreign policy

The infamous commercial messaging chat between President Donald Trump’s top national security officials that accidentally included a journalist in a discussion about America’s military strikes against the Houthis in Yemen earlier this month excluded a key aspect: the Yemeni people.

The text exchange, over the instant messenger service Signal, was revelatory in many ways. As has been widely noted, it showed a carelessness in handling sensitive information that could have endangered the lives of the American servicemembers involved in this operation. It also demonstrated how focused senior Trump administration officials are on tactics, operations, and the propaganda of political communications, such as how to talk to the public about military strikes. Yet lost in the reporting is that their self-leaked conversation conspicuously made no reference to the realities of the people directly affected by Houthi rule, how the US strikes might impact them, or even whether Washington should engage this population.

The episode laid bare the central problems with Trump 2.0’s nascent national security approach: a strong inclination to prioritize tactics and propaganda in statecraft without a clear and practical strategic framework to deal with the biggest challenges in the world and in the Middle East. In the Yemeni case, this has materialized as strikes without strategy and a propagandistic touting of policy wins before they are even achieved. As such, the administration’s method is ignoring potential avenues for shaping the conditions impacting the lives of Yemenis that would lead to a strategic and political defeat for the Houthis and produce a lasting win for broader security in the Red Sea region.

Trump 2.0’s foreign policy: Pursuing “peace” on the cheap while rattling close partners

The contours of the second Trump administration’s approach to the world are still being clarified in word and deed, but one pervasive inclination is to seek quick diplomatic “wins” with long-time adversaries like Russia while disrupting and unsettling relationships with close partners in America’s immediate neighborhood as well as in Europe and Asia. Against that background, three key issues topped this past week’s overall national security agenda:

1. Ukraine war diplomacy. Another round of discussions between American, Russian, and Ukrainian officials took place in Saudi Arabia, with the US delegation led by Michael Anton and Andrew Peak of the State Department. Reports emerged about a possible limited deal restricting military operations in the Black Sea, even as fighting continued between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said that Russia may be “dragging its feet” in these ongoing talks that have yet to produce a major breakthrough to end the conflict. The overall approach to Russia and the signals America has sent are reportedly driving European countries to rethink their positions on nuclear weapons and to consider building nuclear capabilities independent from the US nuclear umbrella.

2. An aggressive deportation campaign. The center of gravity in Trump 2.0’s national security agenda is closer to home, with a “gated community mindset” at its heart. The administration’s efforts to deport large numbers of immigrants continue to test the limits of executive power as the courts challenge Trump’s assertion of unlimited authority.

3. Tariffs and economic warfare. Next week’s deadline for additional tariffs, April 2, which the US president has called both “Liberation Day” and “the big one,” looms large as some observers raise concerns about additional economic shocks at home and abroad. Trump and administration officials have also discussed “secondary tariffs” as part of the mix of tools that will likely push US economic statecraft further into uncharted territory with uncertain implications. These secondary tariffs could impact global energy markets in ways that complicate American ties to the Middle East.

Curiously absent from the top of the agenda for the time being is China — outside of tariffs imposed at the start of February, there has been little discussion about the administration’s next moves on this front, perhaps indicating a calm before the storm.

More than two months into the new administration, there are no major tangible gains for US national security, but this hasn’t stopped the Trump administration’s propaganda machines from declaring victories in geopolitics long before any have been won. Conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson praised Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, who claimed Trump was restoring peace through strength, as “the most effective negotiator in my lifetime.” The conservative editorial page at The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, has charged Witkoff with falling for Russia’s talking points.

Storm clouds gather in the Middle East

As the fog of propaganda thickened over Washington, storm clouds of conflict continued to gather in the Middle East. While Trump administration diplomats talked peace, the US military increased its force posture in the Middle East, sending a second aircraft carrier to the region and reportedly moving strategic bombing aircraft to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

At the same time, Israel renewed its military offensive in the Gaza Strip, launching new attacks and preparing plans for a possible extended campaign there. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a statement on March 19 saying, “What comes next will be much harsher, and you [Hamas] will bear the full consequences. Soon, the evacuation of the population from combat zones will resume. If all Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not removed from Gaza, Israel will act with force beyond anything you have ever seen.”

The following day, Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, the first such attack since Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza. Moreover, protests against Hamas broke out in parts of the Gaza Strip, a possible sign the group may be losing its grip on the Palestinian people.

In the real world of the Middle East, multiple major threats to human security continue to directly imperil the lives of millions in the region. Yet earlier this month, as Trump officials fixated, over Signal, on planning airstrikes without a strategy and tactics in the absence of a clear endgame, their discussion was tellingly disconnected from the lived realities of the Middle Eastern people. Over time, such oversights are bound to undermine US credibility, popular support, and influence abroad.

 

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at MEI.

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images